Juniper Research released a very positive report on the growth of mobile banking from now till 2011, today. According to the research, subscribers will grow tenfold from now till 2011 to ultimately be 816 million (this is very close to the predictions made by Edgar Dunn (see my comments on this here). In addition transactions will increase from 2.7 billion to 37 billion during the same time.What I found particularly interesting about this report is that the analysts tried to not only predict number of subscribers, but also number of transactions. This is of course important because it is an indication of how much banking will be used. I have done some quick calculations of the findings and this is what I found:
- The prediction is that every subscriber would (on average) do more than three banking transaction per month on their mobile. I found this to be quite low based on the experience that we have had with Fundamo deployments. We have seen transaction volumes that is as high as three transactions a day (or even higher).
- The volume of transactions will have to more than double every year to grow to these volumes. If the hockey-stick is more steep, growth could even be more spectacular.